Link to The shift towards sustainable energy is both a technological and environmental imperative, yet the actual statistics often paint a different picture than what is commonly discussed in public forums. Global energy consumption is on the rise, fueled by economic growth, digital advancements, and artificial intelligence. In this context, oil and gas remain crucial to the world's economic and geopolitical stability. The final lecture at the "Vivere nella Comunità" Political School provides insights into the future of energy, the challenges of securing supply, and the paradox faced by resource-rich yet underdeveloped nations.The shift towards sustainable energy is both a technological and environmental imperative, yet the actual statistics often paint a different picture than what is commonly discussed in public forums. Global energy consumption is on the rise, fueled by economic growth, digital advancements, and artificial intelligence. In this context, oil and gas remain crucial to the world's economic and geopolitical stability. The final lecture at the "Vivere nella Comunità" Political School provides insights into the future of energy, the challenges of securing supply, and the paradox faced by resource-rich yet underdeveloped nations.
by Baldo Sansò *— Consultant and Public Policy and Energy Expert
Sansò with faculty and students from the ‘Vivere nella Comunità’ School of Politics
In recent times, discussions around energy have been dominated by the ecological transition, renewable energy, and the resurgence of nuclear power. While these are critical topics, they are often debated without a full understanding of the global energy landscape.
In my lecture in Rome, marking the conclusion of the sixth edition of the "Vivere nella Comunità" Political School's training series, I posed a fundamental question: how much energy does the world currently consume, and what are its sources?
Globally, we consume approximately 600 exajoules of energy annually, translating to an average power usage of about 20 terawatts. (An exajoule is a massive unit of energy in the International System, equivalent to one quintillion joules —10¹⁸—, commonly used to measure national or global energy consumption.)
Over the last seventy years, global energy use has increased by about 2% annually, with spikes during periods of technological adoption: the 1960s and 1970s saw the rise of large-scale industrial production, while the 2000s experienced a boom in personal computing and the internet.
Currently, around 80% of the energy required to meet this demand is produced from fossil fuels. Oil, in particular, plays a vital role in the global energy framework, with consumption now exceeding 100 million barrels daily.
These statistics reveal a frequently overlooked reality: the expansion of renewable energy has not diminished the absolute role of hydrocarbons. Instead, in many regions, renewables are supplementing rather than replacing fossil fuels, primarily because global energy demand continues to climb.
If the 2% annual growth rate persists, in about thirty-five years, global energy requirements could double, increasing from today's 20 terawatts to roughly 40 terawatts.
Baldo Sansò
These figures underscore one of the 21st century's significant economic challenges. Every development process hinges on energy. Population growth, industrialization in emerging economies, increased mobility, transport electrification, and digitalization all drive up energy demand.
Adding to this dynamic is artificial intelligence. The large data centers powering AI models require vast amounts of electricity, as do advanced robotics, cloud computing, and the digital infrastructure reshaping the global economy. Consequently, it's plausible that energy demand will accelerate beyond the recent 2% average in the coming decades.
In this scenario, we must realistically assess the available options. Renewable energy is advancing significantly and is a crucial part of the future energy mix. However, it still faces technological and infrastructural challenges, such as production intermittency, storage capacity, and grid availability.
Nuclear energy is also re-emerging in international discussions. Many governments view it as a key strategy for reducing emissions and ensuring energy security. Yet, it's essential to differentiate between political ambitions and actual industrial capabilities. Conventional nuclear plants — second and third generation, typically producing between 1,000 and 1,600 MW — require lengthy construction periods, often exceeding ten years, with investments never below 15 billion euros per plant.
There is, however, optimism surrounding the development of smaller nuclear plants (ranging from 50 to 300 MW) known as SMRs, or "Small Modular Reactors." These are expected to be constructed within five years and are easier to deploy in areas lacking energy infrastructure. Yet, this technology remains theoretical, and years will pass before it can be tested. Even if successful, it is not intended to replace existing technologies but to complement them. The reason is straightforward: with 440 nuclear reactors currently operational, meeting global energy demand would require about 20,000 reactors (each one gigawatt), illustrating that nuclear power alone cannot realistically meet future consumption growth.
The energy transition is an unavoidable and necessary journey, but the numbers show that for many more decades, the world will continue to rely on oil and natural gas to sustain economic growth and maintain production stability. Ignoring this reality means failing to prepare for two clear challenges we face, both for ourselves and future generations.
Firstly, oil has become a geopolitical issue: producing countries often lack economic, social, and political stability and can, as seen in the Iran conflict, hold the global economy hostage.
The second challenge involves environmental concerns. Recognizing that the energy transition is merely a temporary measure, not a definitive solution for significantly reducing climate impact — and that we will likely need to double fossil fuel consumption — is the starting point for developing and implementing technological, institutional, legal, and geopolitical solutions that stabilize CO₂ levels without reducing hydrocarbon consumption, thereby meeting energy demand.
*Baldo Sansò is founder of drivingchange.org
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